Gov’t revenue target falls behind by another $4.5b in Nov
THE Government missed another of its original revenue targets in November when it collected $4.5 billion less than projected.
What’s more, the shortfall pushed back revenue behind the current target for the fiscal year by $11 billion, even while new revenue measures put in place this month will likely only halve the growth in the Government’s fiscal deficit.
But that is only if between last month and March it can earn what it projected it would at the beginning of the fiscal year.
The current fiscal deficit target of $94.5 billion had already accounted for a downward adjustment to revenue of $11 billion but the Government collected $22.3 billion less than it projected it would for the period April to November.
Moreover, there was no month in which Government earned what it projected it would this fiscal year, excepting in April when it beat projections by $298 million.
Last month, Finance Minister Audley Shaw announced a raft of new tax measures that would yield annualised revenue of $21.8 billion.
Already a portion of the new taxes to be collected won’t start coming into Government coffers until March.
A 10 per cent tax on the consumption of electricity exceeding the first 200 kilowatt-hour (kWh) for each consumer is expected to earn the Government $1.45 billion in its first year of implementation.
But the Jamaica Public Service (JPS) said it won’t be able to collect any of the tax until it updates its system, for which the deadline was set
for March.
Even if the Government were able to collect what it had initially projected it would between last December and March — $126.8 billion — alongside expected revenue from new tax measures — approximately $5 billion — its revenue would still be $6 billion short of target.
The net effect of the adjustments made to the budget in September also meant that the Government faced a $6.5-billion increase in expenditure, according to projections.
For the fiscal year to November, expenditure, excluding amortisation, was $7.3 billion less than originally projected.
Interest payments were adjusted upwards by $16.2 billion over original projections and tracked $5.5 billion higher than originally budgeted for the eight months to November 30, 2009.
Government has little room to keep non-interest expenses down to make up for the shortfall in revenue.
Since September, central government spending came in at original projections but retroactive payments to be made to teachers and nurses totalling over $4 billion have still not been recognised in fiscal accounts.
Capital expenditures, which were slashed by $6 billion for the full fiscal year, was $3.3 billion lower than projected, implying that the government still have another $2.7 billion to cut going forward, which can accommodate some of the variation in interest payments not yet recognised — around $10.7 billion.